Research file · P-2026-0008
7 Oct 2026: the Reserve Bank of India raises the repo rate by 25 basis points, to 5.50%.
7 अक्टूबर 2026: भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक रेपो दर 25 बेसिस पॉइंट बढ़ाकर 5.50% करेगा।
Written 2026-09-29T12:20:43+00:00 · window 2026-10-05 → 2026-10-07 · method hand-read · file built 2026-09-29T12:20:47+00:00
2–3 · Charts and what the engine says
India
Chart: 1947-08-15 00:00 UTC+5.5 · India 15 Aug 1947 00:00 IST New Delhi · grade A
Sources: charts.json
Daśā now: Mars/Rahu · our engine, corpus 3.2.0 · 278 rules fired · raw reading engine-country_IN.json sha256 640a95447bdd312d…
| Domain | for now | against now | natal net | lead for | lead against |
| wealth | 1 | 0 | 27 | The Moon, Venus and Saturn together: self-respect, riches and kindness HS 23.34 | Gulika in the second: plain looks, misery, meanness, vices, shamelessn BPHS 25.63 |
| status_recognition | 3 | 0 | 26 | Mercury, Venus and Saturn together: authority over people, wealth, ste HS 23.42 | [withheld: harm topic] SC 2.181-183 |
| profession | 0 | 0 | 0 | The Moon in the third in a watery sign: beneficent works — the repair JP 15.14 | [withheld: harm topic] HS 11.4 |
| general_fortune | 0 | 0 | 4 | The lord of the ninth or of the tenth stands with the lord of the fift BPHS 48.9-13 | Only malefics bolt the ascendant — the good that other planets promise BPHS 31.11-17 |
| penury | 0 | 5 | -17 | Mars in the second: a harsh face, little learning or wealth, and depen PD 8.8 | |
| legal | 0 | 0 | -1 | The third lord with the ascendant lord gives real affection among sibl JP 12.26 | [withheld: harm topic] BJ 23.16 |
| relocation | 0 | 1 | -2 | Mars's period from Gemini: foreign lands, strong lust, hatred of relat HS 11.8 | |
| Month | Daśā | Gochara net | Transits from the Moon | ||
| 2026-09 | Mars/Rahu/Mercury | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-10 | Mars/Rahu/Venus | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-11 | Mars/Rahu/Venus | -1 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-12 | Mars/Rahu/Sun | -1 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-01 | Mars/Rahu/Moon | -1 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-02 | Mars/Rahu/Mars | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-03 | Mars/Jupiter/Jupiter | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-04 | Mars/Jupiter/Saturn | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) |
4 · From reading to claim
Technique: pratyantar dasha against the crowd
India runs Mars mahadasha / Rahu antardasha / Ketu pratyantar until 10 Oct. Ketu signifies withdrawal and holding back (BPHS ch. 3), so the reading leans to a hold, against the crowd. Untested rule, so it moves the crowd's number down by the 0.05 cap only.
The claim follows the engine's own output as stated in chart_basis; no hand-made rule is added (engine methods v2.x-engine*). Confidence follows confidence_method in the record.
5 · Base rate (how often this happens anyway)
Stated: Crowd-priced: Polymarket about 77% for a 25 bp hike (thin market); a Reuters poll of 18-28 Sep had 35 of 61 economists (57%) expecting the hike. Current repo rate 5.25%.
6 · Crowd and context
Crowd: {'date': '2026-09-29', 'platform': 'Polymarket', 'prob': 0.77}
7 · Evidence against (from the engine itself)
- India: penury has 5 engine witness(es) against now — lead: Mars in the second: a harsh face, little learning or wealth, and dependence on bad people (PD 8.8)
- India: relocation has 1 engine witness(es) against now — lead: Mars's period from Gemini: foreign lands, strong lust, hatred of relations and great mental strain (HS 11.8)
- India 2026-09: Saturn 9 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
- India 2026-09: Jupiter 1 from the Moon — departure from one's country, heavy expenditure, ill-will (PD 26.18-20)
- India 2026-09: Rahu 8 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- India 2026-10: Saturn 9 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
- India 2026-10: Jupiter 1 from the Moon — departure from one's country, heavy expenditure, ill-will (PD 26.18-20)
- India 2026-10: Rahu 8 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- India 2026-11: Saturn 9 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
- India 2026-11: Rahu 8 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- India 2026-12: Saturn 9 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
- India 2026-12: Rahu 7 from the Moon — loss (PD 26.24)
8 · Confidence
Stated 72% · base rate (base_rate_p in the record (computed from price history before logging)) 77.0% · edge -0.05
Edge = our stated confidence minus how often this happens anyway. A claim only adds evidence for the engine if it is right more often than its base rate.
9 · What decides it
Right if: The RBI Monetary Policy Committee statement of 7 Oct 2026 sets the policy repo rate at 5.50%.
Wrong if: Any other outcome (a hold, or a different size). Void if the decision falls outside 5-9 Oct 2026.
10 · Integrity
Prediction line sha256: 7df01013a3d577e22d983c58df6ca4af350ca807e41a84362bfc72b796fcd5d3