Research file · P-2026-0009

28 Oct 2026: the Bank of Canada leaves its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%.

28 अक्टूबर 2026: बैंक ऑफ़ कनाडा अपनी नीतिगत ब्याज दर 2.25% पर बिना बदलाव के रखेगा।

Written 2026-09-29T12:22:02+00:00 · window 2026-10-12 → 2026-10-28 · method hand-read · file built 2026-09-29T12:22:04+00:00

2–3 · Charts and what the engine says

Canada

Chart: 1867-07-01 00:00 UTC-5.04648 · Canada 1 Jul 1867 00:00 LMT Ottawa · grade A

Sources: charts.json

Daśā now: Saturn/Mercury · our engine, corpus 3.2.0 · 249 rules fired · raw reading engine-country_CA.json sha256 ebbfcfef4a9d46b1…

Domain	for now	against now	natal net	lead for	lead against
wealth	0	0	27	Saturn's period from its exaltation brings wisdom and wealth together; HS 15.12	The lord of wealth in the sixth, eighth or twelfth: finances decline BPHS 13.1-2
status_recognition	0	0	28	The lord of the fifth in the fourth: happy, blessed in the mother, wea BPHS 24.52	Malefics in the bad houses are read by the texts for expulsion from yo HS 24.18
profession	0	0	-2		Duryoga: labour that bears no fruit, little public standing, a self-ce PD 6.67
general_fortune	0	0	6	A planet stands with the lord of the fifth — its period is favourable; BPHS 48.10
penury	0	0	-17	Jupiter's aspect on an angle, the Moon or Venus cancels the combinatio JP 7.80	The lord of the second in the twelfth or sixth: loss of wealth JP 11.60
legal	0	0	-3		[withheld: harm topic] JS 1.3.8
relocation	0	0	-1		A wanderer from country to country BPHS 23.11
Month	Daśā	Gochara net	Transits from the Moon
2026-09	Saturn/Mercury/Saturn	-1	Saturn 10 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 9 ✗ loss (PD 26.24)
2026-11	Saturn/Mercury/Saturn	-3	Saturn 10 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 3 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 9 ✗ loss (PD 26.24)
2026-12	Saturn/Mercury/Saturn	-3	Saturn 10 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 3 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
2027-01	Saturn/Ketu/Ketu	-3	Saturn 10 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 3 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
2027-02	Saturn/Ketu/Venus	-1	Saturn 10 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
2027-04	Saturn/Ketu/Sun	-1	Saturn 10 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
2027-05	Saturn/Ketu/Moon	-1	Saturn 10 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
2027-06	Saturn/Ketu/Rahu	+1	Saturn 11 ✓ all happiness and wealth, unique honour (PD 26.22-23 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)

4 · From reading to claim

Technique: dasha, and a transit over the dasha lord

Canada runs Saturn mahadasha / Mercury antardasha / Saturn pratyantar: restraint and delay (BPHS ch. 3, Saturn the karaka of delay), which leans to no change. Weak Mars (2 bindus) crosses the antardasha lord Mercury on 9-10 Oct (BPHS ch. 65-66). Untested rule, so it moves the crowd's number by the 0.05 cap only.

The claim follows the engine's own output as stated in chart_basis; no hand-made rule is added (engine methods v2.x-engine*). Confidence follows confidence_method in the record.

5 · Base rate (how often this happens anyway)

Stated: Crowd-priced: Polymarket about 60% 'no change' (29 Sep 2026; rate swaps imply about 44%). Over 2010-Sep 2026 the Bank held at 104 of 134 scheduled decisions (78%).

6 · Crowd and context

Crowd: {'date': '2026-09-29', 'platform': 'Polymarket', 'prob': 0.6}

7 · Evidence against (from the engine itself)

Canada 2026-09: Saturn 10 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
Canada 2026-09: Rahu 9 from the Moon — loss (PD 26.24)
Canada 2026-11: Saturn 10 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
Canada 2026-11: Jupiter 3 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20)
Canada 2026-11: Rahu 9 from the Moon — loss (PD 26.24)
Canada 2026-12: Saturn 10 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
Canada 2026-12: Jupiter 3 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20)
Canada 2026-12: Rahu 8 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
Canada 2027-01: Saturn 10 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
Canada 2027-01: Jupiter 3 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20)
Canada 2027-01: Rahu 8 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)

8 · Confidence

Stated 65% · base rate (base_rate_p in the record (computed from price history before logging)) 60.0% · edge 0.05

Edge = our stated confidence minus how often this happens anyway. A claim only adds evidence for the engine if it is right more often than its base rate.

9 · What decides it

Right if: The Bank of Canada's 28 Oct 2026 announcement keeps the target for the overnight rate at 2.25%.

Wrong if: Any change. Void if the announcement moves outside 26-30 Oct 2026.

10 · Integrity

Prediction line sha256: d0d13cffdfe218ba3733e94ec885435ee10232c05a06c456245f89f564a0a7d0