Research file · P-2026-0010
12-16 Oct 2026: a more cautious mood in Indian markets. India VIX closes higher on Fri 16 Oct than on Fri 9 Oct.
12-16 अक्टूबर 2026: भारतीय बाज़ार में सतर्कता बढ़ेगी। शुक्रवार 16 अक्टूबर को India VIX, शुक्रवार 9 अक्टूबर से ऊँचा बंद होगा।
Written 2026-09-29T12:22:02+00:00 · window 2026-10-12 → 2026-10-16 · method hand-read · file built 2026-09-29T12:22:06+00:00
2–3 · Charts and what the engine says
India
Chart: 1947-08-15 00:00 UTC+5.5 · India 15 Aug 1947 00:00 IST New Delhi · grade A
Sources: charts.json
Daśā now: Mars/Rahu · our engine, corpus 3.2.0 · 278 rules fired · raw reading engine-country_IN.json sha256 69de2264bbccdff4…
| Domain | for now | against now | natal net | lead for | lead against |
| wealth | 1 | 0 | 27 | The Moon, Venus and Saturn together: self-respect, riches and kindness HS 23.34 | Gulika in the second: plain looks, misery, meanness, vices, shamelessn BPHS 25.63 |
| status_recognition | 3 | 0 | 26 | Mercury, Venus and Saturn together: authority over people, wealth, ste HS 23.42 | [withheld: harm topic] SC 2.181-183 |
| profession | 0 | 0 | 0 | The Moon in the third in a watery sign: beneficent works — the repair JP 15.14 | [withheld: harm topic] HS 11.4 |
| general_fortune | 0 | 0 | 4 | The lord of the ninth or of the tenth stands with the lord of the fift BPHS 48.9-13 | Only malefics bolt the ascendant — the good that other planets promise BPHS 31.11-17 |
| penury | 0 | 5 | -17 | Mars in the second: a harsh face, little learning or wealth, and depen PD 8.8 | |
| legal | 0 | 0 | -1 | The third lord with the ascendant lord gives real affection among sibl JP 12.26 | [withheld: harm topic] BJ 23.16 |
| relocation | 0 | 1 | -2 | Mars's period from Gemini: foreign lands, strong lust, hatred of relat HS 11.8 | |
| Month | Daśā | Gochara net | Transits from the Moon | ||
| 2026-09 | Mars/Rahu/Mercury | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-10 | Mars/Rahu/Venus | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-11 | Mars/Rahu/Venus | -1 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 8 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-12 | Mars/Rahu/Sun | -1 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-01 | Mars/Rahu/Moon | -1 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 2 ✓ acquisition of money, domestic happiness (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-02 | Mars/Rahu/Mars | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-03 | Mars/Jupiter/Jupiter | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-04 | Mars/Jupiter/Saturn | -3 | Saturn 9 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 1 ✗ departure from one's country, heavy expe (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 7 ✗ loss (PD 26.24) |
4 · From reading to claim
Technique: transit over a natal graha, and the dasha
Debilitated Mars (in Cancer) crosses India's natal Mercury (lord of the 2nd, wealth; karaka of trade) on 12 Oct, and India's lagna lord Venus is retrograde from 3 Oct. BPHS ch. 3 (Mercury the karaka of trade); a malefic transiting a natal graha disturbs its significations (Phaladeepika ch. 26). Mars has 4 bindus in Cancer (neutral), so the signal is modest.
The claim follows the engine's own output as stated in chart_basis; no hand-made rule is added (engine methods v2.x-engine*). Confidence follows confidence_method in the record.
5 · Base rate (how often this happens anyway)
Stated: India VIX closed higher 7 days later in 46.2% of past cases.
Computed: 420/909 = 46.2% — every 5th trading day since 2008-03-03: was the close 7 days later higher? · data: data-var_indiavix.csv (4551 rows, sha256 89e607a1294d…) · symbols ^INDIAVIX (Yahoo Finance)
6 · Crowd and context
Crowd: no matching crowd market
7 · Evidence against (from the engine itself)
- India: penury has 5 engine witness(es) against now — lead: Mars in the second: a harsh face, little learning or wealth, and dependence on bad people (PD 8.8)
- India: relocation has 1 engine witness(es) against now — lead: Mars's period from Gemini: foreign lands, strong lust, hatred of relations and great mental strain (HS 11.8)
- India 2026-09: Saturn 9 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
- India 2026-09: Jupiter 1 from the Moon — departure from one's country, heavy expenditure, ill-will (PD 26.18-20)
- India 2026-09: Rahu 8 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- India 2026-10: Saturn 9 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
- India 2026-10: Jupiter 1 from the Moon — departure from one's country, heavy expenditure, ill-will (PD 26.18-20)
- India 2026-10: Rahu 8 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- India 2026-11: Saturn 9 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
- India 2026-11: Rahu 8 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- India 2026-12: Saturn 9 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.22-23)
- India 2026-12: Rahu 7 from the Moon — loss (PD 26.24)
8 · Confidence
Stated 51% · base rate (base_rate_p in the record (computed from price history before logging)) 46.2% · edge 0.05
Edge = our stated confidence minus how often this happens anyway. A claim only adds evidence for the engine if it is right more often than its base rate.
9 · What decides it
Right if: NSE India VIX official close on 16 Oct 2026 is above its close on 9 Oct 2026.
Wrong if: Equal or lower.
10 · Integrity
Prediction line sha256: dd1637ba8397adef4e3a1ab5b3832cacc93ff8e12c72c7940d228042cb892716