Research file · P-2026-0011
9 Oct to 31 Dec 2026: the Shanghai Composite does better than the S&P 500 (% change, each in its own currency).
9 अक्टूबर से 31 दिसंबर 2026: शंघाई कंपोज़िट, S&P 500 से बेहतर करेगा (अपनी-अपनी मुद्रा में % बदलाव)।
Written 2026-09-29T12:22:02+00:00 · window 2026-10-12 → 2026-12-31 · method hand-read · file built 2026-09-29T12:22:10+00:00
2–3 · Charts and what the engine says
China
Chart: 1949-10-01 15:00 UTC+8.0 · China 1 Oct 1949 15:00 CST Beijing · grade A
Sources: charts.json
Daśā now: Mercury/Sun · our engine, corpus 3.2.0 · 281 rules fired · raw reading engine-country_CN.json sha256 ca5edcd6dbc9ad8c…
| Domain | for now | against now | natal net | lead for | lead against |
| wealth | 8 | 0 | 24 | Planets in their own signs raise you step by step: one brings honour i BJ 21.1 | An afflicted lord of the fourth threatens the family house — ruined or PD 16.14 |
| status_recognition | 7 | 0 | 36 | A benefic in the tenth from the Moon or the ascendant — Amala yoga — k JP 7.118 | A planet that would give royal fortune is looked upon by its enemy, or JP 7.55 |
| profession | 1 | 0 | 5 | Venus in the tenth: wide renown, friends, lordship and happy employmen PD 8.19 | |
| general_fortune | 1 | 0 | 4 | The lord of the ninth or of the tenth stands with the lord of the fift BPHS 48.9-13 | |
| penury | 0 | 4 | -16 | No gains, however many the efforts BPHS 22.11 | |
| legal | 0 | 0 | -1 | [withheld: harm topic] BJ 23.16 | |
| relocation | 0 | 0 | -2 | The father is absent at the birth JP 3.47 | |
| Month | Daśā | Gochara net | Transits from the Moon | ||
| 2026-09 | Mercury/Sun/Ketu | +1 | Saturn 3 ✓ position or employment, servants, gain o (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 7 ✓ auspicious travel, happiness of wife, bl (PD 26.18-20 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Rahu 2 ✗ loss of wealth (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-10 | Mercury/Sun/Venus | +1 | Saturn 3 ✓ position or employment, servants, gain o (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 7 ✓ auspicious travel, happiness of wife, bl (PD 26.18-20 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Rahu 2 ✗ loss of wealth (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-11 | Mercury/Sun/Venus | -1 | Saturn 3 ✓ position or employment, servants, gain o (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 8 ✗ fatigue from wearisome journey, bad luck (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 2 ✗ loss of wealth (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-12 | Mercury/Moon/Moon | -1 | Saturn 3 ✓ position or employment, servants, gain o (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 8 ✗ fatigue from wearisome journey, bad luck (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 1 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-01 | Mercury/Moon/Mars | -1 | Saturn 3 ✓ position or employment, servants, gain o (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 8 ✗ fatigue from wearisome journey, bad luck (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 1 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-02 | Mercury/Moon/Rahu | +1 | Saturn 3 ✓ position or employment, servants, gain o (PD 26.22-23 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Jupiter 7 ✓ auspicious travel, happiness of wife, bl (PD 26.18-20 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Rahu 1 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-05 | Mercury/Moon/Jupiter | +1 | Saturn 3 ✓ position or employment, servants, gain o (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 7 ✓ auspicious travel, happiness of wife, bl (PD 26.18-20 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Rahu 1 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-06 | Mercury/Moon/Jupiter | -1 | Saturn 4 ✗ loss of wife, loss of relations, loss of (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 7 ✓ auspicious travel, happiness of wife, bl (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 1 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) |
USA
Chart: 1776-07-04 17:10 UTC-5.01 · USA 4 Jul 1776 17:10 LMT Philadelphia · grade X
Sources: charts.json
Daśā now: Rahu/Mercury · our engine, corpus 3.2.0 · 256 rules fired · raw reading engine-country_US.json sha256 e7850bf7ae81b501…
| Domain | for now | against now | natal net | lead for | lead against |
| wealth | 0 | 0 | 32 | The lord of the third in the eleventh: constant gains in trade, intell BPHS 24.35 | Mars and Saturn here bring losses through brothers JS 1.3.11 |
| status_recognition | 0 | 0 | 23 | The lords of the fifth and sixth in mutual angles form Sankha yoga JP 7.138 | Venus fallen, or in the seventh, eighth or twelfth, undoes the royal c JP 10.29 |
| profession | 0 | 0 | 0 | [withheld: harm topic] UK 6.32.5-33.5 | Duryoga: labour that bears no fruit, little public standing, a self-ce PD 6.67 |
| general_fortune | 0 | 0 | 5 | A lord of the sixth, eighth or twelfth stands with a trine-lord — even BPHS 48.14-17.5 | |
| penury | 0 | 0 | -9 | Jupiter's aspect on an angle, the Moon or Venus cancels the combinatio JP 7.80 | Poverty from birth, so that even food must be begged for BPHS 13.6-7 |
| legal | 0 | 0 | -4 | [withheld: harm topic] JP 5A.4 | |
| relocation | 0 | 0 | -1 | [withheld: harm topic] JP 18.96 | |
| Month | Daśā | Gochara net | Transits from the Moon | ||
| 2026-09 | Rahu/Mercury/Jupiter | -3 | Saturn 2 ✗ trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 6 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 1 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-10 | Rahu/Mercury/Saturn | -3 | Saturn 2 ✗ trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 6 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 1 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-11 | Rahu/Mercury/Saturn | -1 | Saturn 2 ✗ trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 7 ✓ auspicious travel, happiness of wife, bl (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 1 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2026-12 | Rahu/Mercury/Saturn | -1 | Saturn 2 ✗ trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 7 ✓ auspicious travel, happiness of wife, bl (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 12 ✗ expenditure (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-02 | Rahu/Mercury/Saturn | -3 | Saturn 2 ✗ trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 6 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 12 ✗ expenditure (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-03 | Rahu/Ketu/Venus | -3 | Saturn 2 ✗ trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 6 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 12 ✗ expenditure (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-06 | Rahu/Ketu/Moon | -1 | Saturn 3 ✓ position or employment, servants, gain o (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 6 ✗ [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20); Rahu 12 ✗ expenditure (PD 26.24) | ||
| 2027-07 | Rahu/Ketu/Mars | +1 | Saturn 3 ✓ position or employment, servants, gain o (PD 26.22-23); Jupiter 7 ✓ auspicious travel, happiness of wife, bl (PD 26.18-20 (vedha: PD 26.3-8)); Rahu 12 ✗ expenditure (PD 26.24) |
4 · From reading to claim
Technique: gochara from each nation's Moon sign
Phaladeepika ch. 26: Jupiter favourable in the 2nd, 5th, 7th, 9th and 11th from the Moon; Saturn and Rahu in the 3rd, 6th and 11th. On 1 Oct 2026 China (Moon in Capricorn) scores +1 (Jupiter 7th, Saturn 3rd); the USA (Moon in Aquarius) scores -4 (Saturn 2nd, which is sade sati, Rahu 1st, Jupiter 6th). Our 10-year back-test of this rule on 7 national indices found no reliable edge (Spearman 0.045, p=0.19, 280 nation-quarters), so this is the live test of that rule.
The claim follows the engine's own output as stated in chart_basis; no hand-made rule is added (engine methods v2.x-engine*). Confidence follows confidence_method in the record.
5 · Base rate (how often this happens anyway)
Stated: Shanghai beat the S&P over a window of this length in 40.8% of past cases.
Computed: 555/1359 = 40.8% — every 5th trading day since 1997-07-02: did var_shanghai beat var_spx over the next 83 calendar days? · data: data-var_shanghai.csv (7084 rows, sha256 d8f0ec3bf102…), data-var_spx.csv (14306 rows, sha256 afd9269e0a20…) · symbols 000001.SS, ^GSPC (Yahoo Finance)
6 · Crowd and context
Crowd: no matching crowd market
7 · Evidence against (from the engine itself)
- China: penury has 4 engine witness(es) against now — lead: No gains, however many the efforts (BPHS 22.11)
- China 2026-09: Rahu 2 from the Moon — loss of wealth (PD 26.24)
- China 2026-10: Rahu 2 from the Moon — loss of wealth (PD 26.24)
- China 2026-11: Jupiter 8 from the Moon — fatigue from wearisome journey, bad luck, loss of money, misery (PD 26.18-20)
- China 2026-11: Rahu 2 from the Moon — loss of wealth (PD 26.24)
- China 2026-12: Jupiter 8 from the Moon — fatigue from wearisome journey, bad luck, loss of money, misery (PD 26.18-20)
- China 2026-12: Rahu 1 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- USA 2026-09: Saturn 2 from the Moon — trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23)
- USA 2026-09: Jupiter 6 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20)
- USA 2026-09: Rahu 1 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- USA 2026-10: Saturn 2 from the Moon — trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23)
- USA 2026-10: Jupiter 6 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.18-20)
- USA 2026-10: Rahu 1 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- USA 2026-11: Saturn 2 from the Moon — trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23)
- USA 2026-11: Rahu 1 from the Moon — [withheld: harm topic] (PD 26.24)
- USA 2026-12: Saturn 2 from the Moon — trouble to wealth and children (PD 26.22-23)
- USA 2026-12: Rahu 12 from the Moon — expenditure (PD 26.24)
8 · Confidence
Stated 46% · base rate (base_rate_p in the record (computed from price history before logging)) 40.8% · edge 0.05
Edge = our stated confidence minus how often this happens anyway. A claim only adds evidence for the engine if it is right more often than its base rate.
9 · What decides it
Right if: % change of the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) from the 9 Oct close to the 31 Dec close is above that of the S&P 500 (^GSPC).
Wrong if: Equal or lower.
10 · Integrity
Prediction line sha256: 628ec475628c1fb52a904b7139167702ec43dea9f6c7c39b5a9b205c28008402